- July 14, 2015 -
AMERICA HAS ALWAYS LIKED THE TRUTH
Poll: Trump leads the GOP field
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump has surged to the top of a crowded
Republican presidential field, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll
finds, but the brash billionaire is also the weakest competitor among
the top seven GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In
the nationwide survey, Trump leads at 17% and former Florida governor
Jeb Bush is second at 14%, the only competitors who reach double digits.
Trump's edge, which is within the poll's margin of error, is one more
sign that his harsh rhetoric about immigration and toward his rivals has
struck a chord with some voters.
"He's got some backbone," Steve
Fusaro, 59, of San Clemente, Calif., who was among those polled, said
approvingly in a follow-up interview. "We need a businessman."
But
Buxton McGuckin, 19, of Columbia, S.C., who supports Kentucky Sen. Rand
Paul, expresses alarm at the potential repercussions of Trump's words.
"I know he's a conservative and Republican but I mean ... the (stuff)
that comes out of his mouth," the audio engineer says.
Trump has gained 6 percentage points since the USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll taken in June; Bush's support has stayed steady.
The
survey of 1,000 adults, taken by landline and cellphone Thursday
through Sunday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage
points. The sample of 349 likely Republican primary and caucus voters
has an error margin of +/-5.25 points.
Trump's strengths and his weaknesses are on display.
While
he leads the GOP field, he fares the worst of seven hopefuls in
hypothetical head-to-heads against former secretary of State Hillary
Clinton, the leading Democratic nominee. Bush, the strongest candidate
against Clinton, lags by four points nationwide, 46%-42%. Trump trails
by 17 points, 51%-34%.
That's a wider margin than Florida Sen.
Marco Rubio (down 6 points), former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (8
points), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (9 points), Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul
(10 points) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (13 points).
Nearly
half of all those surveyed, 48%, say Trump's comments about illegal
immigrants, including characterizing Mexicans as rapists and drug
dealers, matter a lot to their vote. Just 15% say the comments make them
more likely to support him; 48% say they make them less likely.
"We've
seen Donald Trump make it to the top, but the question is can he stay
on top," says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University
Political Research Center. "In 2012, Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain
led the GOP primary field briefly but only to fade."
When the
first and second choices of Republicans are combined — an indication of
how things might sort out when the field eventually gets smaller — Trump
does a bit less well. Bush is at 14% and Trump at 13%. Rubio and Walker
are supported by 10%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 6% and Carson by 5%.
"I
haven't decided which of the several thousand candidates we have who
I'm supporting," jokes William Turville, 68, of Reedville, Va. At this
point, he says he could see himself backing Bush, Rubio or Walker.
"Bush
has some good ideas, (but) I think his problem is he's painted with the
Bush last name," Turville says. Some voters "were not happy with his
older brother, (and) there's still stigma from his father."
"I think we've had enough Bushes in there," says Charlene Birdwell, 70, of Texarkana, Texas.
Even
Stacey Richardson, 43, of Gretna, Neb., calls Bush her first choice but
volunteers Trump's name as well. "I like the way he tells the truth,"
she says.
Trump is the best-known of the Republican contenders.
Just 2% of those surveyed have never heard of him, compared with 27% who
have never heard of Walker and 16% who haven't heard of Rubio. But
Trump also is viewed the most negatively of all.
In the poll, 61%
have an unfavorable impression of him and 23% a favorable one, a
net-negative rating of 38 points. Bush's favorable-unfavorable rating is
35%-42%.
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